Waiting for the political impetus Extras

Commentary on the Logistics Indicator Q1 2025 by Kai Althoff, Chairman of the Board of Bundesvereinigung Logistik (BVL) e.V. and CEO 4flow SE

The figures for Q4 2024 had led us to be slightly optimistic, as business expectations in the logistics sector had risen slightly. As the new values of the Logistics Indicator from Q1 2025 show, this hope was somewhat premature. Almost all indicator values have fallen again, albeit only slightly.

The business situation remains at a low level in Q1 for both shippers and logistics service providers. It is interesting to note that the business situation among logistics service providers (indicator value 85.8) is still significantly better than business expectations (80.8) and the business climate (83.3) in this segment. The opposite is true for industry and trade, which are slightly more optimistic about business expectations (87.1) and the business climate (83.4) despite a weaker current situation assessment (79.8).

From a monthly perspective, the situation improved slightly - in February, all indicator figures for the entire economic sector rose slightly. Only business expectations and the business climate among shippers continued to fall slightly.

In light of the current economic situation and (geo)political developments with an uncertain future regarding the war in Ukraine and US tariffs, uncertainty in the logistics sector is therefore high. It is all the more important that a reliable and capable federal government is formed quickly that can present a clear plan for new economic growth, investment in infrastructure, a visible reduction in bureaucracy and lower energy prices. Once credible concepts have been agreed, the players in companies, logistics and supply chain management will also become more confident and willing to invest in their business.